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Bachmann: Howard Dean Redux?
Posted by Dave at 8/23/2011 6:23 PM 
Categories: uncategorized
Tags: Michele Bachmann Howard Dean 2012 election politics Tim Pawlenty
Categories: uncategorized
Tags: Michele Bachmann Howard Dean 2012 election politics Tim Pawlenty
According to various polls and based on her win in the Iowa straw poll, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has come from virtually nowhere as a national name to one of the "top tier" candidates in the hunt for the Republican nomination. In spite of the fact that a sitting House member has not been nominated by a major party in over a century and only one sitting House member, James A. Garfield, has ever been elected, Republican voters have gotten on board with the self-professed Tea Party candidate. She even knocked a fellow Minnesotan, 2-year Governor Tim Pawlenty, out of the race altogether with her superior showing in Iowa.
While he never exactly rose to great heights, Gov. Pawlenty's downfall seemed to begin in June at a candidate debate in New Hampshire. Given the opportunity to followup on previous criticisms of the health care plan implemented in Massachusetts during the Mitt Romney governorship — a plan Pawlenty had likened to the unpopular federal reforms enacted last year by referring to it as "Obamneycare" — Pawlenty chose instead to take the high road. The after-debate reaction was not good; the already mild-mannered candidate looked to many like he was unwilling or unable to take an aggressive fight to the GOP frontrunner.
Contrast that with Rep. Bachmann: during her 3 terms in Congress, she has become known for heated, inflammatory, pugilistic rhetoric. She's been a fierce critic of President Obama, appearing on numerous news and commentary shows blasting the "stimulus", the health care reform, cap and trade, and other Obama Administration initiatives; she even gave a Tea Party response to the State of the Union. Her stock has gone up as her rhetoric has maintained a take-no-prisoners, make-no-apologies edge. Not only is she doing well against her fellow Republican challengers, the latest Gallup Poll shows her in a statistical tie in a general election against Barack Obama.
Early frontrunners, however, can tend to collapse under the pressure of campaigning and the intense scrutiny. At this time in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican pack; he left the race without winning even a single delegate, much less a state. But the historical candidate who might be the closest parallel to Michele Bachmann comes from the 2004 election: former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
Dean entered the nomination fray as a virtual unknown outside of New England, but his stock rose among Democratic voters (at least those being polled) as his criticism of President George W. Bush intensified, particularly on the issue of the war in Iraq. He was from outside the mainstream Democratic Party power structure; he was to the antiwar movement what Michele Bachmann is to the Tea Party: a vocal iconoclast who took on his opponents in his own party for being too complacent and the President in strident terms.
Unfortunately for his ambitions, Dean had a penchant for verbal gaffes. Whether it was wondering aloud whether we were really better off without Saddam Hussein, to stating that he "hate[d]" Republicans and that they were "evil", to suggesting that President Bush had inside information ahead of time concerning the 9/11 attacks, Dean's campaign had to make regular walk-backs on his statements. The climax was the night of the Iowa caucuses when he launched into his famous "Dean scream", appearing madman-like on national TV and becoming the punch line for comedians everywhere. His support evaporated, and his candidacy imploded.
Like Dean in 2003, Bachmann has made her name on a willingness to fight... and on rhetorical missteps. Like Dean in 2003, Bachmann is seen by many even in her own party as unelectable by the general public, and perhaps even a bit weird. When Gov. Dean crumbled in the 2004 election, the Democratic Party ended up choosing a more mainstream, establishment candidate who seemed more likely to put up a competitive bid against the sitting President. Will a similar fate befall Rep. Bachmann and the Republican Party? That's a question that will help keep this election interesting.
While he never exactly rose to great heights, Gov. Pawlenty's downfall seemed to begin in June at a candidate debate in New Hampshire. Given the opportunity to followup on previous criticisms of the health care plan implemented in Massachusetts during the Mitt Romney governorship — a plan Pawlenty had likened to the unpopular federal reforms enacted last year by referring to it as "Obamneycare" — Pawlenty chose instead to take the high road. The after-debate reaction was not good; the already mild-mannered candidate looked to many like he was unwilling or unable to take an aggressive fight to the GOP frontrunner.
Contrast that with Rep. Bachmann: during her 3 terms in Congress, she has become known for heated, inflammatory, pugilistic rhetoric. She's been a fierce critic of President Obama, appearing on numerous news and commentary shows blasting the "stimulus", the health care reform, cap and trade, and other Obama Administration initiatives; she even gave a Tea Party response to the State of the Union. Her stock has gone up as her rhetoric has maintained a take-no-prisoners, make-no-apologies edge. Not only is she doing well against her fellow Republican challengers, the latest Gallup Poll shows her in a statistical tie in a general election against Barack Obama.
Early frontrunners, however, can tend to collapse under the pressure of campaigning and the intense scrutiny. At this time in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican pack; he left the race without winning even a single delegate, much less a state. But the historical candidate who might be the closest parallel to Michele Bachmann comes from the 2004 election: former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
Dean entered the nomination fray as a virtual unknown outside of New England, but his stock rose among Democratic voters (at least those being polled) as his criticism of President George W. Bush intensified, particularly on the issue of the war in Iraq. He was from outside the mainstream Democratic Party power structure; he was to the antiwar movement what Michele Bachmann is to the Tea Party: a vocal iconoclast who took on his opponents in his own party for being too complacent and the President in strident terms.
Unfortunately for his ambitions, Dean had a penchant for verbal gaffes. Whether it was wondering aloud whether we were really better off without Saddam Hussein, to stating that he "hate[d]" Republicans and that they were "evil", to suggesting that President Bush had inside information ahead of time concerning the 9/11 attacks, Dean's campaign had to make regular walk-backs on his statements. The climax was the night of the Iowa caucuses when he launched into his famous "Dean scream", appearing madman-like on national TV and becoming the punch line for comedians everywhere. His support evaporated, and his candidacy imploded.
Like Dean in 2003, Bachmann has made her name on a willingness to fight... and on rhetorical missteps. Like Dean in 2003, Bachmann is seen by many even in her own party as unelectable by the general public, and perhaps even a bit weird. When Gov. Dean crumbled in the 2004 election, the Democratic Party ended up choosing a more mainstream, establishment candidate who seemed more likely to put up a competitive bid against the sitting President. Will a similar fate befall Rep. Bachmann and the Republican Party? That's a question that will help keep this election interesting.
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