Precisely Inaccurate, Part 2

Although I had no original intention of writing a sequel to the post "Precisely Inaccurate", events have dictated otherwise.  According to this story from the Associated Press, the methodology for calculating the number of jobs that have been "saved or created" by the so-called stimulus bill is even more inaccurate, skewed, and unbelievable than even skeptics imagined.

It appears that upon reviewing the reports, the Associated Press found the following (emphasis added):
more than two-thirds of 14,506 jobs credited to the recovery act under spending by just one federal office were overstated because they counted pay increases for existing workers as jobs saved.

The inflated job count is at least partly the product of the administration instructing local community agencies that received money to count the raises as jobs saved. ...

...More than 250 other community agencies in the U.S. similarly reported saving jobs when using the money to give pay raises, pay for training and continuing education, extend employee work hours or buy equipment, according to their spending reports.

[A] Georgia program inflated the numbers even further by claiming the recovery money saved more jobs than the number of people it actually employs. The agency employs 508 people but claimed 935 jobs were saved because of confusion over government reports.

Not surprisingly, the government officials downplayed the obvious errors in job creation numbers — according to the AP reporters, these errors "would probably be balanced out by other errors that underreported jobs".  Well then.

The bottom line is this:  neither the government nor anyone else has the ability to measure something as complex as how many jobs are created or destroyed by a particular piece of legislation; the overall economy is too large and complex.  Anyone claiming specific numbers regarding jobs "saved or created" by the so-called "stimulus" legislation is either lying or delusional.  Neither condition is particularly inspiring.

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